Using Discrete Markov Chain Model for Predicting the Behavior of Banks Loan Portfolios

Document Type : Industry Article

Authors

Abstract

The main goal of total commercial banks is collect the saving of real and natural persons and allocate them in the form of facilities to industry, service and manufacturing companies. with the Non repayment of facilities from side of customers, the banks is faced with many problems such as disable in repayment of central banks, increasing the amount of facilities from customers repayment amount and disable in granted facilities. With increasing delayed demands and delaying in repayment of loans, the necessary of optimal allocation of facilities and investigation of bank credit portfolio is revealed. therefore, in current research, the modeling of predict the behavior of bank loan portfolios by using of Markov chain with limited state is investigated that includes (1) active loan or alive, (2) loan with one to three month delay in repayment, (3) delayed loan .transitional matrix between different states by historical information from the melli banks’ mortgage portfolio is achieved and then the timely prediction of payment number delays in repayment and Non repayment of facilities granted to certain portfolio is conducted. The results indicate that the proposed Markov model have the ability to accurately predict the behavior of credit bank portfolio. Key words: bank credit portfolio, Stochastic processes, discrete Markov chain.

Keywords


1 . عباسیان ، عزت اله ، حسینی دوست ، احسان (1391 ) .  " مقایسه مدل های دینامیک خطی و غیر خطی در پیش بینی شاخص بورس : مطالعه موردی بورس تهران " ، فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی حسابداری مالی ، سال چهارم ( شماره 16 ) : صفحات 111  - 82  .
2 .  زنگنه ، طیبه ، امین نیری ، مجید ، زارعی ، مسعود  ( 1389 ) . " ارائه مدلی جهت پیش بینی رفتار پرتفوی وام بانک ها با به کارگیری مدل زنجیره های مارکوف گسسته " ، هفتمین کنفرانس بین المللی مهندسی صنایع ، دانشگاه اصفهان ، 14 و 15 مهر  .
3 . فلاح شمس ، میر فیض و رشنو ، مهدی ، ( 1387 ) ، مدیریت ریسک اعتباری در بانک ها و مؤ سسات مالی و اعتبارات ( مفاهیم ومدل ها ) ، تهران : دانشکده علوم اقتصادی ، چاپ اول .
4 . اصغری ، مجید ؛  خوانساری ، رسول و سیاهکارزاده ، محمد سجاد ، 1386 ، بررسی مدل های پرتفوی ریسک اعتباری و زیر ساخت های لازم برای به کارگیری آن ها در صنعت ، سیویلیکا : مرجع دانش ، 20 مرداد 1392 www.civilica.com
 
5 . Henderson , C . , (2009 ) , "Retail credit Risk Model : What do these models like and how did they fare in the crisis ? " ,  A presentation for the conference on “Modeling Retail Credit Risk After the Sub-Prime crisis  , June 12,  Federal Reserve Bank of  Philadelfia .
6 . Cyert , R .M. , Davidson , H.J. , & Thompson , G. L. (1962 ) . " Estimation of the Allowance for Doubtful Accounts by Markov Chains " , Management Science , Vol . 8 , pp . 287 – 303 .
7 . Frydman , H . , Kallberg , J . G . , & Kao , D . , (1985 ) . " Testing the Adequacy of Markov Chains and Mover – Stayer Models as Representations of  Credit  Behavior " , Operations Research , Vol . 33 , No .4 , pp . 13 – 1203 .
8 .  Kim , D . , Santomero , A. M . , (1993 ) , " Forcasting  Required  Loan  Loss  Reserves " , Journal of  Economics  and  Business , Vol . 45 , pp . 29 -315 .
9. Zipkin , Paul . ( 1993 ) ." Mortgages and Markov Chains : A Simplified Evaluation Model " , Management Science , Vol . 39 , No . 6 , pp . 683 – 691 .
8 . Jarrow , R . , & Turnbull , s . , ( 1995 ) , " Pricing  Options on  Financial  Securities Subject  to Default Risk " , Journal of  Finance , Vol . 50 , pp. 53 – 86 .
10 . Smith , L . D . , Bilir , C . , Huang , V . W . , Hung , K . Y . , & Kaplan , M . , " Citibank Models Credit  Risk on Hybrid  Mortgages in Taiwan " , Interfaces , Vol . 35 , pp . 215 -229
11 . Lefebvre , M . , ( 2000 ) , " Applied Stochastic Processes " , Mathematics  Subject Classification
12 . Gabriela , F . , Angel , D . , Javier , M . , & Gorbea , E . (1998 ) , " A discrete Markov Chain Model for Valuing Loan portfolios : The case of  Mexican  loan sales " , Journal of Banking & Finance , Vol . 22 , pp . 1457 – 1480 .
13 . Anderson , T.W. , Goodman , A.L . (1957 ) . " Statistical  Inference About Markov Chains " , Annals of Mathematical Statistics , Vol . 28 , pp . 89 – 110 .
14.Santomero, Anthony M. (1997), Commercial Bank Risk Management: An Analysis of the Process, Financial Institutions center, 11-95.
15. Collins, Micheal E. (2009), Restoring Confidence in the Banking System, SRC Insight, 13(4), 12-15.