An Uncertain Prediction Model of Pavement Deterioration Using Grey System Theory (Case Study: Garmsar-Qom Highway Route)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Industrial Engineering Department, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran

2 School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

3 Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Nowadays, the management of road repair and improvement is prioritized when a network of road is established. Roughness indices, pavement condition, pavement quality, skid resistance and road serviceability play an essential role in deterioration model to manage and optimize the roads. The main goal of this paper is to evaluate the necessary indices of pavement condition for modeling the deterioration process on one hand, and to consider the uncertainty of the pavement deterioration process through grey theory modelling on the other hand. Extracting all the indices is a time-consuming and costly process. Initially, the roughness indices and the pavement condition were examined by using the evaluation of grey relationships. The results showed that both indices have the same effect on the age of the pavement approximately. The IRI index was selected for grey modeling considering the same effect of two indices on pavement age. One of the reasons was the high correlation between this index and the comfort of road users for choosing the index to analyze the uncertainty of pavement deterioration in the paper. Furthermore, grey prediction model which is able to detect the future state of uncertain systems based on existing knowledge has been used in order to take into account the uncertainty in the deterioration forecasting processes. A comparison was made between this method and regression to validate the model. The results showed the average of error difference is very small between two methods and equal to 0.01.

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References

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Journal of Modeling in Engineering
Volume 23, Issue 82
October 2025
Pages 37-49

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History

  • Receive Date: 27 January 2024
  • Revise Date: 03 January 2025
  • Accept Date: 15 January 2025

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