بکارگیری همزمان روش مونت کارلو و کاهش ابعاد در محاسبه قابلیت اطمینان پدیده جدایی ستون آب

نوع مقاله : مقاله عمران

نویسندگان

گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه سیستان‌وبلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران

چکیده

قابلیت اطمینان شبکه یکی از اصلی‌ترین شاخص‌های موثر برای طراحی و مدیریت شبکه‌های توزیع آب، در شرایط بهره‌برداری عادی و یا بحرانی است. رخ دادن جریان گذرا و بعضاً پدیده جدایی ستون آب یکی از عوامل کاهش قابلیت اطمینان در شبکه‌های توزیع آب می‌باشد. افزایش فشار ناشی از پدیده مذکور می‌تواند آسیب‌های مالی و جانی به همراه داشته باشد که پرداختن به بحث قابلیت اطمینان شبکه با در نظر گرفتن جریان گذرا و جدایی ستون آب را الزامی می‌کند. در این مقاله با کمک روش مونت کارلو و روش کاهش ابعاد به بررسی قابلیت اطمینان شبکه آبرسانی با در نظر گرفتن شرایط رخ دادن پدیده جدایی ستون آب پرداخته شده است. بدین منظور سیستم حلقوی وانگ و همکاران (2017) در نرم‌افزار ANSYS Fluent شبیه‌سازی گردید و نتایج این شبیه‌سازی‌ها به عنوان داده ورودی برای روش‌های مذکور در محیط Matlab فراخوانی شدند. بررسی نتایج قابلیت اطمینان نشان داد که رخ دادن پدیده جدایی ستون آب، احتمال خرابی شبکه را به 247/0 می‌رساند. همچنین مقایسه احتمال خرابی متغیری‌های موثر در ایجاد فشار بیانگر آن است که احتمال خرابی ناشی از زمان بسته شدن شیر و متغیر فاصله از شیر بالادست با مقادیر 209/0 و 0158/0، به ترتیب بیشترین و کمترین مقدار را به خود اختصاص داده‌اند. نتیجه این تحقیق کارایی روش کاهش ابعاد در کنار روش مونت کارلو، به عنوان راهکاری عملی برای محاسبه و تحلیل قابلیت اطمینان شبکه آبرسانی، را نشان می‌دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Applying Simultaneously Monte Carlo Method and Dimension Reduction in Calculating the Reliability of Water Column Separation Phenomenon

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mehdi Azhdary Moghaddam
  • Sakineh Safari
  • Abdul Hamid BahrPeyma
  • Mohammad GivehChi
Civil Engineering Department, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Network reliability is one of the main effective indicators for designing and managing water distribution networks in normal or critical operating conditions. Occurrence of transient flow and sometimes the water column separation phenomenon is one of the factors of reducing reliability in water distribution networks. The increase in pressure caused by the mentioned phenomenon can cause financial and life damages, which makes it necessary to discuss the reliability of the network, occurrence the transient flow and water column separation. In this article, with the help of the Monte Carlo method and the dimension reduction method, the reliability of the water supply network has been investigated, taking the conditions of the occurrence of the water column separation phenomenon. For this purpose, the Loop system of Wang et al. (2017) was simulated in ANSYS Fluent software and the results of these simulations were called as input data for the mentioned methods in Matlab.
 Examining the reliability results showed that the occurrence of the water column separation phenomenon reached the probability of network failure to 0.247. Also, the comparison of the probability of failure of variables effective in creating pressure shows that the probability of failure caused by the valve closing time and the distance from the upstream valve with amounts 0.209 and 0.0158 have the highest and lowest values, respectively. The result of this research shows that the dimension reduction method, along with the Monte Carlo method, is a practical solution for calculating and analyzing the reliability of the water supply network.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Transient flow
  • Water column separation phenomenon
  • Loop network
  • Reliability
  • Reduction dimension method
  • Monte carlo method
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