مدل پیش بینی عدم قطعیت اضمحلال روسازی با استفاده از تئوری خاکستری (مطالعه موردی: مسیر بزرگراهی گرمسار-قم)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

2 دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

3 دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه امیرکبیر، تهران، ایران

چکیده

امروزه پس از آن که شبکه‌ای از راه‌ها شکل می‌گیرد مدیریت ترمیم و به‌سازی راه‌ها در اولویت قرار می‌گیرد. به منظور مدیریت ترمیم و بهینه سازی راه‌ها شاخص‌های ناهمواری، وضعیت روسازی، کیفیت روسازی، مقاومت لغزشی و خدمت دهی راه در مدل سازی اضمحلال نقش اساسی دارند. از این رو هدف اصلی این مقاله از یک سو ارزیابی شاخص-های موردنیاز وضعیت روسازی به منظور مدل سازی فرایند اضمحلال است و از سوی دیگر درنظرگرفتن عدم قطعیت فرایند اضمحلال روسازی از طریق مدل سازی خاکستری می‌باشد. استخراج کلیه شاخص‌ها فرایندی زمان‌بر و هزینه‌بر می‌باشد به همین منظور ابتدا با استفاده از ارزیابی روابط خاکستری، شاخص‌های ناهمواری و وضعیت روسازی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد هر دو شاخص تاثیر تقریبا یکسانی بر سن روسازی دارند. با توجه به تاثیر یکسان دو شاخص بر سن روسازی، از شاخص IRI برای مدل سازی خاکستری بهره گرفته شده است. همبستگی بالا بین این شاخص و راحتی کاربران راه و نیز تاثیر روند تغییرات آن بر وضعیت عملکردی روسازی، از دلایل انتخاب این شاخص جهت تحلیل عدم قطعیت اضمحلال روسازی در مقاله حاضر بوده است. در ادامه به منظور درنظرگرفتن عدم قطعیت در فرایندهای پیش بینی اضمحلال از مدل‌های پیش بینی خاکستری که قادر به تشخیص وضعیت آتی سیستم‌های غیرقطعی بر پایه دانش موجود می‌باشد استفاده شده است. برای صحه گذاری مدل پیشنهادی مقایسه‌ای بین این روش و رگرسیون صورت گرفت. نتایج مقایسه نشان داد که اختلاف متوسط خطای نسبی در دو روش بسیار ناچیز و برابر 01/0 است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

An Uncertain Prediction Model of Pavement Deterioration Using Grey System Theory (Case Study: Garmsar-Qom Highway Route)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamed Maleki 1
  • Mohammad Bagher Fakhrzad 1
  • Akbar Danesh 2
  • Hamzeh Zakeri 3
1 Industrial Engineering Department, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran
2 School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3 Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Nowadays, the management of road repair and improvement is prioritized when a network of road is established. Roughness indices, pavement condition, pavement quality, skid resistance and road serviceability play an essential role in deterioration model to manage and optimize the roads. The main goal of this paper is to evaluate the necessary indices of pavement condition for modeling the deterioration process on one hand, and to consider the uncertainty of the pavement deterioration process through grey theory modelling on the other hand. Extracting all the indices is a time-consuming and costly process. Initially, the roughness indices and the pavement condition were examined by using the evaluation of grey relationships. The results showed that both indices have the same effect on the age of the pavement approximately. The IRI index was selected for grey modeling considering the same effect of two indices on pavement age. One of the reasons was the high correlation between this index and the comfort of road users for choosing the index to analyze the uncertainty of pavement deterioration in the paper. Furthermore, grey prediction model which is able to detect the future state of uncertain systems based on existing knowledge has been used in order to take into account the uncertainty in the deterioration forecasting processes. A comparison was made between this method and regression to validate the model. The results showed the average of error difference is very small between two methods and equal to 0.01.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Pavement management
  • Grey theory
  • Pavement deterioration models
  • Evaluation of grey relationships
  • Regression
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