ارزیابی امنیت استاتیک سیستم قدرت در حضور عدم قطعیت با استفاده از روش تخمین نقطه‌ای

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشگاه سمنان

چکیده

نوسانات و افزایش مداوم قیمت سوخت و آلودگی‌های زیست‌محیطی سبب روی‌آوری به منابع انرژی تجدیدپذیر شده است. با این‌حال، طبیعت تغییرپذیر و نامطمئن این تولیدات در کنار فشار اقتصادی ناشی از محیط بازار برق، امنیت شبکه را به مخاطره می‌اندازد. بدین لحاظ، اطلاع از وضعیت شاخص‌های امنیتی در شرایط مختلف بهره‌برداری و درنظرگرفتن اقدامات اصلاحی و پیشگیرانه ضروری است. استفاده از مقدار امید ریاضیِ متغیرهای عدم قطعیت هنگام تحلیل امنیت سیستم قدرت، منجر به نتایجی غیرواقعی و به‌خطر اُفتادن پایایی سیستم قدرت می‌گردد. روش‌های سنتی مبتنی بر تحلیل شمار زیادی سناریو مانند روش مونت‌کارلو به‌دلیل حجم و زمان محاسبات بالا فاقد کارایی لازم در سیستم‌های قدرت با اندازۀ واقعی هستند. در این مقاله، به‌منظور تحلیل امنیتی سیستم قدرت، از روش تخمین نقطه‌ای استفاده می‌گردد که ضمن امکان درنظر گرفتن عدم قطعیت، زمان و حجم محاسبات مطلوبی دارد. روش پیشنهادی، روی چندین سیستم قدرت نمونه و عملی آزمایش شده و توانایی آن در مدل‌سازی مناسب عدم قطعیت در زمان مطلوب نشان داده می‌شود

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Static Security Evaluation of Power Systems Considering Uncertainties Using a Point Estimation Method

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hossein Sharifzadeh
  • Nima Amjady
  • M GH
semnan university
چکیده [English]

Continuous increase in fuel prices and its variations together with the emerged environmental pollutions cause to tendency to the renewable energy sources. However, the variable and uncertain natures of these generations as well as the market pressure due to the electricity market background threat the network security. Therefore, the recognition of the security index states in different operation conditions and considering the preventive and corrective actions are vital. Employment of the expected value of the uncertain variables for the power system security analysis would result in unrealistic outcomes and threatening of the power system security. Conventional approaches relying on the analysis of the large sum of scenarios such as Monte Carlo method are not efficient in the realistic large scale power systems due to the high computational burden and required time. This paper, in order to analysis the power system security, uses a point estimation method which consider the uncertainty while still has the satisfactory computational burden and time. The proposed method is examined on several power system test cases and its ability to effective uncertainty modeling in acceptable time is shown.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Static security evaluation
  • renewable energy sources
  • distribution function of stochastic variable
  • Monte Carlo method
  • point estimation method

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