مدلسازی عدم قطعیت در فرایند ارزیابی عملکرد کارکنان مبتنی بر تئوری شواهد و تئوری فازی

نوع مقاله: مقاله صنایع

نویسندگان

1 گروه صنایع، دانشکده صنایع، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

2 گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

3 مهندسی صنایع، دانشکده فنی دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

عدم قطعیت در داده‌های حاصل از نظرات و قضاوت‌های انسانی از عوامل مهم ایجاد خطا در فرایند ارزیابی عملکرد کارکنان می‌باشد. در مطالعات معدودی که در زمینه مواجهه با خطا و عدم قطعیت در فرایند ارزیابی عملکرد انجام شده است، راهکارهایی که عمدتا مبتنی بر کاربرد ابزارهای فازی هستند، ارائه شده است. این راهکارها کاستی‌های اساسی مانند عدم پوشش عدم قطعیت ناشی از نقص دانش و یا مشکلات مرتبط با پیاده سازی و اجرا دارند. با توجه به موارد فوق، در این مقاله مدلی جدید مبتنی بر تئوری شواهد و ابزارهای فازی جهت مدلسازی عدم قطعیت در فرایند ارزیابی عملکرد کارکنان ارائه شده است. مدل ارائه شده امکان دریافت نظر متناسب با سطح دانش ارزیاب را فراهم آورده و قابلیت مواجهه با عدم قطعیت ناشی از تغییرپذیری و جهل را دارا می‌باشد. در مدل ارائه شده، عدم قطعیت در داده‌های حاصل از دو مقیاس متداول ارزیابی، شامل مقیاس شباهت بصری و مقیاس عبارت‌های زبانی فازی، به همراه داده‌های مرتبط با قابلیت اطمینان ارزیاب، در ساختار تئوری شواهد مدلسازی و با استفاده از قوانین ترکیب شواهد، تجمیع می‌شوند. عملکرد، مزایا و بهبودهای ناشی از مدل ارائه شده در مقایسه با سایر روش‌های متداول تجمیع داده‌های ارزیابی، با استفاده از داده‌های شبیه‌سازی شده و مثال عددی، بررسی شده است. نتایج بررسی‌ها نشان می‌دهد که مدل ارائه شده علاوه بر افزایش قابلیت مواجهه با عدم قطعیت و تسهیل نظرسنجی در فرایند ارزیابی عملکرد کارکنان، دقت نتایج حاصل از تجمیع داده‌ها را نیز به طور معنادار افزایش می‌دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Modelling uncertainty in performance appraisal process based on evidence theory and fuzzy theory

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hossein Nahid Titkanlu 1
  • Roxana Fekri 2
  • Abbas Keramati 3
1 industrial engineering, payam noor university, tehran, iran
2 industrial engineering, payam noor university, tehran, iran
3 industrial engineering, tehran unicersity, tehran, iran
چکیده [English]

Uncertainty involved in human judgments is an important cause of error and loss of credibility in outputs provided by performance appraisal (PA) processes. In few existing studies related to the errors and uncertainties in PA process, solutions mainly based on the use of fuzzy tools have been presented in this regard. These solutions have fundamental deficiencies such as inability to cope with epistemic uncertainty and also problems associated with their implementation. Considering these problems, in this paper, a new model based on evidence theory and fuzzy tools has been proposed to model uncertainty in PA process. The proposed model makes it possible for assessors to provide their ratings commensurate with their level of knowledge and also has the ability to deal with uncertainty caused by randomness and ignorance. In the proposed model which has been designed based on multi-source assessment framework, the uncertainty contained in the data obtained from two common evaluation scales, including Visual Analogue Scale and fuzzy linguistic scale, along with data related to the reliability of evaluator, have been modeled in evidence theory structure. These data then have been aggregated with evidence combination rules. The performance, benefits and improvements resulting from the proposed model, compared with other common aggregation methods in P.A models, have been investigated using simulated data and a numerical example. The results show that the proposed model in addition to improving the ability of dealing with uncertainty in P.A processes and facilitating announcing opinion by raters, provides more accurate results than traditional P.A models.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Uncertainty؛ performance appraisal
  • multi-source assessment
  • evidence theory
  • fuzzy set theory
 

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