استفاده از مدل شکنندگی در تخمین عمر مفید باقیمانده (مطالعه موردی: سیستم بارگیری معدن مس سونگون)

نوع مقاله : مقاله مهندسی معدن

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی استخراج معدن، دانشکده معدن، نفت و ژئوفیزیک، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود، سمنان، ایران،

2 دانشکده مهندسی معدن دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود

3 عضو هیئت‌علمی گروه معدن ، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود

4 استاد، عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه شمالگان ترومسو، نروژ

5 استادیار، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی، قزوین، ایران

چکیده

ایدة عمر مفید باقیمانده (RUL) مفهوم جدیدی است که پیش‌بینی از مقدار عمر مفید باقیمانده را قبل از وقوع خرابی برای یک سیستم براساس شرایط حاضر و پروفیل عملیاتی گذشته ارائه می‌دهد. در این مقاله RUL بر اساس قابلیت اطمینان تخمین زده شده و برای تقارب به نتایج واقعی‌تر تاثیر شرایط محیط عملیاتی در قالب فاکتورهای ریسک در تحلیل‌ها وارد می‌شود. این شرایط محیطی گاها ملموس و قابل مشاهده (مشهود) بوده و گاها امکان تعیین و وارد کردن آنها در تحلیل وجود نداشته و تحت عنوان "فاکتورهای ریسک نامشهود" با استفاده از مدل شکنندگی تحلیل می‌شوند. تحلیل RUL مطالعه موردی از سیستم بارگیری (شاول کوماتسو 1250) معدن مس سونگون براساس اطلاعات یک بازه 8 ماه نشان داد؛ مدل ویبول نرخ مخاطره متناسب مرکب (W-MPHM) بهترین برازش بر داده‌ها را دارد. در این مدل چهار فاکتور ریسک شیفت، نوع سنگ، نوع باربر و بارندگی با ضرایب نرخ مخاطره 66/2، 79/3، 204/0 و 18/1 به عنوان موثرترین فاکتورها بدست آمد. RUL سیستم در دو سناریوی بعد طی حدود 40 ساعت صفر شد. همچنین مقایسه این W-MPHM با مدل نمایی نرخ مخاطره متناسب (Ex-PHM) در طول 80 ساعت کارکرد نشان داد تقعر منحنی قابلیت اطمینان در مدل دومی بیشتر از مدل اولی بوده و در واقع سرعت افت قابلیت اطمینان در شروع بازه بیشتر می‌باشد. این موضوع نشان دهنده تاثیر فاکتورهای ریسک نامشهود در تحلیل علمکرد سیستم بوده و صرف نظر از آن نااریبی قابل توجهی در نتایج بدنبال خواهد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Application of Frailty Model in Remaining Useful Life Estimation (Case Study: Sungun Copper Mine's Loading System)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Awat Ghomghale 1
  • Mohammad Ataei 2
  • Reza Khalokakaie 3
  • Abbas Barabadi 4
  • Ali Nouri Qarahasanlou 5
1 Ph.D. Student of Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran
2 Faculty of Mining, Petroleum & Geophysics, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran
3 Faculty of Mining, Petroleum & Geophysics, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran
4 UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Langnes, Tromsø, 9037, Norway
5 Assistant professor, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
چکیده [English]

The Residual Useful Life (RUL) provides an estimate of the amount of remaining useful life before a system failure depends on present conditions and past operating profiles. In this paper, RUL is estimated based on reliability and for convergence to more realistic results, the effect of operating environment conditions in the form of risk factors (covariates) is also involved in the analysis. These environmental conditions are sometimes tangible and "Observable" and sometimes it is not possible to determine and include them in the analysis and are analyzed under the heading of “Un-observed risk factors” using the frailty model. RUL analysis of a case study of the loading system (Shovel Komatsu 1250) of the Sungun copper mine, based on 8-months information, has shown that Weibull mix proportional hazard (W-MPHM) has the best fit on the data. In this model, four factors including shift risk, rock kind, load system type and rainfall with risk rates of 2.66, 3.79, 0.204 and 1.18 have been obtained as the most effective factors. System RUL became zero in the next two scenarios in about 40 hours. Comparing W-MPHM and Ex-PHM over 80 hours showed that the concurrence of the reliability curve in the second model is greater than the first model and in fact, the reliability decline rate is higher at the beginning of the range. This result reflects the impact of intangible risk factors on system performance analysis, regardless of which will result in significant inconsistency of the results.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Heavy Equipment
  • Reliability
  • Remaining Useful Life (RUL)
  • Frailty model

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مدل سازی در مهندسی
دوره 18، شماره 62
آبان 1399
صفحه 129-142

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 17 آذر 1398
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 01 اردیبهشت 1399
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 11 تیر 1399

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